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美银下调标普500今年目标位至4500 押注防御型资产

作者：博客自媒体栏目：好物推荐2024-07-07 18:21:565244

将标普500在2022年的目标位从4600点下调至4500点。Subramanian及其团队称：“请注意，标普500指数在衰退期间的平均峰谷降幅约为32%。因此，标普500指数今年迄今10%的跌幅可以非常粗略地解释为贴现了三分之一的衰退可能性（平均峰谷跌幅的三分之一）。如果衰退的可能性上升，就会有更多的下行风险。”

随着经济衰退可能性的增加，美国银行越发偏向防御板块，并将主要资产配置转向必需消费品行业ETF（XLP.US）。美国银行将该行业评级从“减持”上调为“增持”。

Subramanian称，机构投资者减持该行业的比重接近纪录高位，且减少劳动力/投入成本的通胀可能令利润率受益。

Subramanian及其团队还将材料行业ETF（XLB.US）评级从“与大盘持平”下调至“减持”，并称在房地产和汽车等领域，材料行业面临巨额支出。

此外，Subramanian还增持能源行业指数ETF（XLE.US），医疗保健行业ETF（XLV.US）和金融行业ETF（XLF.US），减持通信服务行业ETF（XLC.US）和非必需消费品行业ETF（XLY.US）。

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